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Assessing vulnerability of food availability to climate change in Hai district, Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania

机译:评估坦桑尼亚乞力马扎罗地区海区粮食供应对气候变化的脆弱性

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摘要

Climate change has a large effect on agriculture sector and, consequently, on the food available forresidents of Hai District and other regions of Tanzania. Based on four decades of climate data, thisstudy assessed the impacts of climate change and its potential vulnerability on food availability inHai District, Kilimanjaro region. The results from this study suggest an association between foodcrop production and variation in climate (temperature and rainfall) in Hai District. Consideringthe aspect of rainfall and temperature, we demonstrate that rainfall and temperature have significantrelationship with maize and bean outputs. The rainfall had a strong positive associationwith maize and beans production and whereas temperature had inverse relationship with maizeand beans yields. With the annual loss $0.04 million and $0.01 million per year from cattle andgoats/sheep respectively and the additional annual loss of $29 million and $10.8 million from maizeand bean crops respectively in Hai District during years of severe and prolonged droughts, ourstudy highlighted how severe droughts can dramatically affect agriculture production and foodsecurity in the area. To mitigate climate change and provide effective adaptation measures, it isimperative to develop a broader research framework, which integrates bio-physical and socioeconomicaspects of food systems which addresses its vulnerability and thereby improve food security.
机译:气候变化对农业部门有很大影响,因此对海区和坦桑尼亚其他地区居民的可用食物也有很大影响。基于四十年的气候数据,本研究评估了乞力马扎罗地区海区气候变化及其潜在脆弱性对粮食供应的影响。这项研究的结果表明,海区的粮食作物生产与气候变化(温度和降雨)之间存在关联。考虑到降雨和温度方面,我们证明降雨和温度与玉米和豆类产量有显着关系。降雨与玉米和豆类产量有很强的正相关关系,而温度与玉米和豆类产量成反比。在严重和长期干旱的年份,海区每年因牛和山羊/绵羊每年分别损失4万美元和10万美元,另外每年因玉米和豆类作物分别损失2,900万美元和1,080万美元,因此我们的研究着重指出极大地影响了该地区的农业生产和粮食安全。为了减轻气候变化并提供有效的适应措施,必须建立更广泛的研究框架,该框架应结合粮食系统的生物物理和社会经济方面,以解决其脆弱性,从而改善粮食安全。

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